Generic Predictions
Predictions aren't unique to hockey. In fact, predictions aren't unique at all. Yet, year after year, people buy publications, watch in-depth analysis and fool themselves into believing that they are absorbing something different than they did the previous year.
Yes, I'm talking about you. Not only am I talking to both of you that actually watch hockey, but I'm also talking to you the football fan, you the basketball fan (of course I only mean college), and even to you the baseball fan. The only thing that really changes among predictions between sports is the positions.
The following generic predictions might clarify what I mean:
[Please note: the below statements are intended to follow something like “Team X can be a (playoff, championship) team…]
[It helps if you can imagine someone with a scratchy, aged smokers voice narrating these predictions: think a cross between Tom Waits and Tom Sizemore]
1. If _______ can rebound from his injury that kept him out most of the season last year and become the leader his team needs.
2. If goalie _______ can step up this year and claim the number one goalie job.
3. If free agent ______ can have a career season and live up to his substantial contract.
4. With all the parity in the league (for parity, see NFL) due to the new financial structure, Team X needs youngsters _______ and _______ to prove that they matured in the off-season.
There are obviously more generic prediction formats, but I can’t cover them all during my lunch break. What really determines the quality of a prediction is the credibility of the predictee. No, “predictee” isn’t actually a real word, but I like it more than “predictor”. The point being that a well established writer or TV analyst could make a statement like, “all the Bruins’ need are a few guys to step up,” and people will believe it. While I could write that same comment, and it would be on par with me stating, “Emanuel Lewis had the potential to be a great power forward in the NBA.”
If you have decent credibility and either a cleanly shaved bald head, a grey-haired mullet, or had over 400 minutes of penalties during any season in the NHL (regardless of how long he actually lasted in the league), then almost anything you say about hockey becomes incontestable. And, it almost guarantees you a job with Versus.
Labels: mullet, prediction, the rink rat, therinkrat
Let's Pretend
Imagine, just for a second, that the preseason actually mattered.
Actually, while we're in dream mode, let's pretend that I was a top tier Junior player until I suffered a career-ending, let's say, knee injury. There, that should help the credibility of the preposterous path I'm about to lead you down.
Now, back to pretending that the preseason provides us some insight into which franchise will eventually hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. Who, I'd like to mention, is a friend of mine on my NHL Community blog. Pardon the digression again, but sometimes name-dropping is necessary. Sadly, he is my only friend.
Back to the point at hand. May I direct your attention to the final preseason standings below?
----------------------- TEAM STANDINGS --------------
Eastern Conference
Northeast Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
Ottawa ( 1) 7 7 0 0 26 15 14
Montreal ( 4) 8 4 3 1 21 24 9
Buffalo ( 5) 6 4 2 0 22 18 8
Toronto ( 8) 8 3 3 2 22 30 8
Boston (15) 6 1 4 1 13 19 3
Southeast Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
Atlanta ( 2) 7 5 2 0 20 15 10
Carolina ( 3) 6 4 1 1 15 11 9
Florida ( 7) 7 4 3 0 15 14 8
Washington (11) 7 3 3 1 21 21 7
Tampa Bay (13) 5 2 2 1 12 16 5
Atlantic Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
New Jersey ( 5) 6 4 2 0 19 10 8
N.Y. Islanders ( 9) 9 3 4 2 22 30 8
N.Y. Rangers (10) 6 3 2 1 17 23 7
Philadelphia (12) 8 3 5 0 20 24 6
Pittsburgh (14) 6 1 3 2 17 21 4
Western Conference
Central Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
Detroit ( 1) 9 6 3 0 34 19 12
Columbus ( 9) 8 3 3 2 18 19 8
Nashville (10) 6 3 2 1 14 14 7
Chicago (12) 8 3 4 1 23 27 7
St. Louis (14) 7 2 5 0 19 28 4
Pacific Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
San Jose ( 2) 7 5 0 2 20 15 12
Dallas ( 7) 7 4 2 1 30 28 9
Phoenix ( 8) 8 3 2 3 21 23 9
Anaheim (11) 7 3 3 1 17 15 7
Los Angeles (13) 5 3 2 0 19 20 6
Northwest Division
Team (RK) GP W L OT GF GA PTS
Edmonton ( 3) 7 5 2 0 25 22 10
Minnesota ( 3) 7 5 2 0 25 19 10
Colorado ( 5) 6 4 0 2 25 19 10
Vancouver ( 6) 8 4 2 2 23 25 10
Calgary (15) 8 1 5 2 13 24 4
-----------------------------------------------------
What does this tell us? Well, for one thing, it shows everyone that I'm money when it comes to cutting & pasting (I even used keyboard shortcuts). Another thing, which I think we can all agree on, is that there is a distinct possibility that the standings could unfold in just this very way.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we can all agree that Pittsburgh will finish last in the Atlantic?
What's that?
No?
Why not?
Oh, I see.
Well, I don't know if I'm buying that Crosby-Malkin-Fleury-Gonchar-Esposito-Staal-Recchi explaination as a way of discounting the accuracy of pre-season stats. That's as ridiculous as saying the Islander's new look won't have anything with them making the playoffs?
You don't agree? No?
Okay, so I see there is some reticence in accepting my theory that pre-season rankings are meaningful. And there is a small chance I might agree, even after all I've said. But I do find it interesting that all the pre-season "Division Winners" actually have a darn good chance of winning their respective divisions (with Edmonton being the least likely as I see it).
I guess I see it like this: pre-season tells us which teams have grown since last year. Of course, that growth is somewhat contingent on the final status of last years team. And, injuries and scratches have to be factored in to the pre-season results as well, but it can provide some insight regardless.
Who knows what it will mean? Maybe nothing, but it should be mentioned that after 2 games Ottawa is 2-0 after going undefeated in the pre-season. Then again, they did play the Leafs twice. Sorry guys, but it needed to be said.
Labels: prediction, preseason, rankings, the rink rat
